2.8 Per capita consumption in Australia compared with other countries

2.8.1 Considerations for comparing consumption data across countries

Per capita tobacco (or cigarette) consumption—the amount of tobacco (or number of cigarettes) per person per year sold for domestic consumption—is a useful index with which to try to compare different levels of tobacco use in different countries. However, as outlined in Section 2.6, these indices should be interpreted with great care. Figures calculated by different researchers may be based on varying ways of estimating either or both the tobacco numerator and the population denominator.

Estimates of the numbers of cigarettes sold are sometimes based on production and trade data, sometimes on customs and excise data and sometimes on industry sales figures. Often sources are incompletely or inconsistently reported or not reported at all.

Even for studies that exclusively compare the same type of consumption data, inconsistencies may still remain:

• Different countries levy excise and customs duty on tobacco in different ways. Some levy it per cigarette stick sold. Others levy it on the basis of the weight of tobacco sold. Others still levy it on the value of tobacco sales.
  • Among countries where tobacco is levied by weight, some include the weight of the filter and some do not. In some countries the weight excised is net of moisture content; in some countries the moisture is included in the excisable weight.
  • To enable comparison with countries that tax tobacco on the basis of weight, figures from countries that levy tax per cigarettes are converted to weight, mostly assuming that one cigarette is equal to one gram. However one gram is probably an overestimate of the weight of cigarettes in most countries, and actual average weight must have varied considerably between countries and over time.
• It is also necessary to be careful where numbers of cigarettes are used in the numerator. Some estimates include only cigarettes and some convert cigars, pipe, roll-your-own and other tobacco to ‘cigarette equivalents’. If only cigarettes are included, cigarettes per capita will underestimate tobacco consumption depending on the extent of use of these other products.
• Record-keeping systems in national tax offices are designed not to provide valid estimates of tobacco consumption. Their primary purpose is to accurately record revenue.
  • In some countries, for instance, it is not easy to distinguish imports of manufactured smoking tobacco from imports of manufactured tobacco sheet or even raw tobacco that are destined not for retail sale but for factories that produce tobacco products that will be subject to excise duty. Inclusion of such items in estimates of imported tobacco products results in double counting and an overestimate of the amount of tobacco consumed.
• Official tax receipts also underestimate consumption in that smuggled cigarettes are not included; consumption of illegally supplied tobacco is a much more significant proportion of total consumption in some countries than in others.

Population figures used to calculate such indexes of tobacco consumption are also not entirely straightforward:

• Some estimates are based on the total population. Other times the figure includes only adults, sometimes adults 18 and over, sometimes adults 16 and over, and sometimes people 15 and over.
• In countries with very low female smoking prevalence, overall consumption figures will be lower than in countries with higher female smoking prevalence, even though cigarette consumption among males may be very high.
• In some analyses, researchers have calculated per capita consumption for some products just for males.
• Some researchers have included and some have excluded armed services personnel in population estimates.¹
• Estimates of resident population are higher at the end of a year than at the beginning, and they are also subject to revision. In Australia, estimates of resident population are revised following collection of data in the five-yearly census.

Finally, of course, consumption in various countries in one particular year says nothing about the relative reductions in consumption in such countries over time.

2.8.2 Comparisons of per capita tobacco consumption

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) compiles data on tobacco consumption (among many other measures) in the OECD Data Explorer². Data on annual tobacco consumption, measured in grams of tobacco per head of population aged 15+ years, is presented in Table 2.8.1 in ten-year intervals from 1960 to 2020.

In the thirty years between 1970 to 2000, per capita consumption fell by almost 60% in Australia, substantially more than the falls in most of Europe, roughly the same as the decline the UK and Aotearoa New Zealand. Consumption declined by the same magnitude in Australia (59%) in the 20 years from 2000 to 2020, showing similar rate of change to that in France and the United States, but less than that in Greece (75%) and Aotearoa New Zealand (74%). Per capita consumption in New Zealand declined by 50% between 2000 and 2010, and a further 49% between 2010 and 2020.

2.8.3 Comparisons of per capita cigarette consumption

The International Cigarette Consumption Database project² has compiled annual cigarette consumption data for a number of countries based on various sources of sales, production, imports and exports figures for cigarettes and tobacco. This data is presented for selected countries, including Australia, as per capita cigarette consumption in Figure 2.8.1.

Figure 2.8.1 shows that, between 1970 and 2010, per capita cigarette consumption in Australia was highest in 1980 and then steadily declined, and that most other countries showed a similar pattern. Per capita consumption was 62% lower in 2010 compared to 1980 in Australia. This was a similar proportional decline to Canada (68%), Ireland (64%), the United States (64%), and South Africa (62%). Consumption in all selected countries declined by at least 49%. The decline in absolute volume of cigarettes was also similar across Australia, Canada, Ireland and the United States (approximately 2000-2400 sticks).

Figure 2.8.2 plots data on the number of cigarettes consumed in 2019 among people aged 15+ years who smoke, compiled by The Tobacco Atlas. The Atlas compares various indicators of tobacco use and tobacco control across all countries.³ The first editions of the Atlas were published by the American Cancer Society in conjunction with the World Lung Foundation, while it is now published by Vital Strategies and Economics for Health at Johns Hopkins University. It can be seen from the figure that Australians who smoke consumed fewer manufactured cigarettes annually than those from Canada, France and the US, but more than people who smoke from Aotearoa New Zealand, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.^4,5

These figures include manufactured cigarettes only, excluding roll-your-own tobacco. The proportion  of people who smoke who consume roll-your-own tobacco has increased in Australia⁶ (see also Section 1.12) and is also realtively high in the UK, Aotearoa New Zealand and several other countires.

Data from a 2011 ERC Statistics report⁷ cited in Figure 2.8.3 suggest that consumption in Australia over the 10 years to 2009 fell by 17%in Australia, less than in Aotearoa New Zealand, the UK and the US, and substantially less than in Canada.

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References

1. Psoter W and Morse D. Annual per capita apparent consumption of tobacco products in the United States: 1900-1990. Preventive Medicine, 2001; 32(1):1–9. Available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11162320

2. Hoffman SJ, Mammone J, Rogers Van Katwyk S, Sritharan L, Tran M, et al. Cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions. BMJ, 2019; 365:l2231. Available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31217224

3. Shafey O, Eriksen M, Ross H, and Mackay J. The Tobacco Atlas, Third Edition. American Cancer Society, 2010.

4. Mackay J, Eriksen M, and Shafey O. The Tobacco Atlas, Second Edition. Washington: The American Cancer Society and the Union Internationale Contre le Cancer, 2006.

5. American Cancer Society, International Union against Cancer, and World Health Organization, Tobacco Country Profiles 2nd Edition. Atlanta Georgia,: ACS; 2003. Available from: http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTHEALTHNUTRITIONANDPOPULATION/EXTETC/0,,contentMDK:20225516~menuPK:376607~pagePK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:376601,00.html.

6. Bayly M, Scollo MM, and Wakefield MA. Who uses rollies? Trends in product offerings, price and use of roll-your-own tobacco in Australia. Tobacco Control, 2019; 28:317-24. Available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30030409

7. ERC Statistics International Plc. Tobacco Business - May 2010. London: ERC Statistics International Plc, 2011. Last update: Viewed Available from: http://www.erc-world.com/sample/Tob%20Business%20May%2010.pdf.