2.1 Production and trade data as a basis for estimating tobacco consumption

2.1.1 Tobacco products manufactured in Australia

Figure 2.1.1 shows the volume of total tobacco products produced in Australia from 1957 to 2004, when publication of data on production of cigarettes and other tobacco products was discontinued by the ABS. The total weight of tobacco products manufactured in Australia has clearly declined substantially since it peaked at 33,300 metric tonnes in 1975.

2.1.2 Manufactured tobacco products, adjusted for imports and exports

Data on tobacco products manufactured in Australia are of limited usefulness in estimating consumption as they include tobacco products produced for export and do not include tobacco products imported into Australia.

In February 2003 the Tobacco Free Initiative of the World Health Organization (WHO) released a discussion paper on trends in cigarette use that did include estimates of such exports and imports. The analysis covered several dozen countries including Australia for the years 1970 to 2000.⁴ These estimates were based on data from a combination of official trade statistics and data collected by research agencies in surveys of tobacco companies. The Australian data on numbers of cigarettes produced came from the United States Department of Agriculture from 1970 to 1989, and then from (private sector) market research agency, ERC Statistics International Plc.⁵ Estimates for tobacco products other than cigarettes were not included in this analysis. As can be seen in Section 2.2, smoking tobacco made up 14% of the total weight of tobacco excised in 1970 and about 5% in 2000 and about 11% in 2010. Data on quantities of cigarettes imported and exported came from databases compiled by the United Nations.^6,7 Estimates for Australia are included in Table 2.1.1. Note that the World Health Organization analysis estimates numbers of cigarettes imported and exported based on the total weight of product, assuming that an average cigarette weighed 1 gram. The actual weight of cigarettes imported into Australia is in fact considerably lower, with 99% of cigarettes imported in the 1990s weighing less than 0.8 grams (see Table 2.4, p10 AIHW Drugs in Australia).8

Using this mix of the available data sets, it would seem that the total number of cigarettes consumed in Australia peaked in 1981, increased slightly over the early 1990s and declined by about one-third between 1990 and 2000 and then increased slightly over the 2000s.

Note that these data relate to cigarettes only, not to any other type of tobacco product.

2.1.3 Manufactured and imported tobacco products per capita

To take account of increases in population over this 30-year period, Guindon and Boisclair's report for the WHO also included estimates of per capita consumption. Per capita consumption is calculated using the number of people 15 years and over. (In most countries, prevalence of smoking among young people starts to approach adult levels by the mid-teens. Countries vary widely in the proportion that children make up of the total population. Dividing total quantities of tobacco by total numbers of persons would give a misleadingly low estimate of tobacco consumption in countries where children make up a very high proportion of the population. For these reasons, most international studies of tobacco consumption divide estimates of tobacco by the number of persons 15 years and over.12) The figures included in the WHO study and reproduced in Figure 2.1.2 (and the figures since 2001 using the additional data source indicated above) are three-year running averages based on consumption in the listed and previous two years.

These data suggest that per capita consumption of cigarettes has declined significantly since 1970, with almost a 50% reduction in the estimated number of cigarettes consumed per capita between 1980 (at which time the average per capita cigarette consumption for the previous three years had peaked at 3215 cigarettes) and 2010 (by which time average per capita consumption for the previous three years had reduced to little more than 1250 cigarettes per person 15 years and older).

2.1.4 Imported tobacco products after tobacco manufacturing ceased in Australia

The last tobacco manufacturing facility ceased operations in Australia in 2016 (see Section 10.3) Since then, all tobacco legally sold in Australia has been manufactured overseas. Table 2.1.2 shows the quantity of tobacco products imported into Australia from 2017 onwards, less the quantity exported to other neighbouring countries, as reported in the United Nations Comtrade Database. Figure 2.1.3 then shows the total weight of tobacco products imported into Australia, less exports, per head of population for each year.

The quantity of tobacco products imported into Australia in 2024 was about one-third of the quantity imported in 2017, and about half that imported in 2020, after adjusting for exports. The quantity of manufactured tobacco imported was relatively stable in 2017 to 2019, and a similar quantity in 2021, but more manufactured tobacco was exported than imported in 2020. Tobacco imported in a given year may not necessarily be sold to consumers straight away. Tobacco products have a relatively long shelf life and may be stored for long periods in warehouses. As discussed in Section 2.5 and Section 13.7, new regulations impacting the types of tobacco products able to be sold, changes to the way customs duties are collected, and the practice of stockpiling tobacco products before a tax increase, may account for fluctuations in some years. Major changes to the types of tobacco products able to be sold in Australia in 2025 would likely contribute to lower import volumes in 2024. Figure 2.1.3 shows that the largest annual decline in per capita tobacco imports (less exports) occurred between 2023 to 2024, where 33% less tobacco was imported in 2024 compared to 2023, but that tobacco import volumes had also declined annually by 8% to 24% between 2017 and 2020.

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References

1. Australian Bureau of Statistics. 8301.0 Manufacturing production, Australia, Jun 2004. Canberra: ABS, 2004. Available from: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyReleaseDate/0EE34227E473B969CA256FFD007A2D4F?OpenDocument

2. Australian Bureau of Statistics. 5368.0 International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia Canberra: ABS, 2011. Available from: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyCatalogue/A5FB33BD2E3CC68FCA257496001547A1?OpenDocument

3. Australian Bureau of Statistics. 8301.0.55.001 Manufacturing production, Australia, Jun 2006. Canberra: ABS, 2006. Updated September 2006 [viewed October 2006] ; Available from: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyCatalogue/846FE96282EACCBBCA256F48007063C6?OpenDocument

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5. ERC Statistics International Plc. The World Cigarette Market: The 1998 Survey. Suffolk, Great Britain: 2001. Available from: http://www.erc-world.com/

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8. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Drugs in Australia 2010: tobacco, alcohol and other drugs. Drug statistics series no. 27, cat. no. PHE 154. Canberra: AIHW, 2011. Available from: http://www.aihw.gov.au/publication-detail/?id=10737420497&tab=2

9. United Nations Statistics Division. Commodity trade statistics data base 2001 to 2010. 2011. [viewed December 2011] ; Available from: http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx

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11. US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Centre. Tobacco Statistics (94012). 1996. [viewed not by author] ; Available from: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/InternationalFoodDemand/

12. ERC Statistics International Plc. The World Cigarette Market: the 2010 Survey - Australia. London: ERC Statistics International Plc, 2011. Available from: http://www.erc-world.com/sample/tob/Cigarette%20Indexes/Australia.pdf

13. Chapman S. Changes in adult cigarette consumption per head in 128 countries 1986–90. Tobacco Control 1992;1:281–4. Available from: http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/cgi/reprint/1/4/281

14. Euromonitor International. Tobacco in Australia, Global Market Information Database, 2010. London: Euromonitor International, 2011. Updated September 2010 [viewed 9 December 2011] ; Available from: http://www.euromonitor.com

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