Changes in per capitaconsumption of tobacco products result from the combined effects of:
- changes in the proportion of people in the population who regularly smoke and
- changes in the amounts of tobacco smoked by regular smokers.
Figure 2.10.1 plots changes in smoking prevalence against reported numbers of cigarettes smoked by regular smokers since 1980.
Reported consumption per smoker increased in the 1980s at the same time as prevalence of smoking declined. Between 1992 and 1998 reported consumption fell while prevalence stayed flat. Prevalence and consumption appear to have fallen in parallel between 1989 and 1992 and between 1998 and 2004. Reported consumption appears to have flattened since 2004 and 2010, while prevalence has continued to decline. (These observations are consistent with data presented in Table 2.2.6 in Section 2.2, which are based on excise receipts rather than reported consumption.)
Changes over time in the proportion of people smoking and the amounts smoked by (remaining) regular smokers are driven by factors including:
- demographic trends such as the post-war baby boom and increasing life expectancy
- marketing practices of tobacco companies, including promotion and the nature of the product itself, both of which can increase the uptake of smoking and resumption of smoking among those who have quit
- characteristics of smokers who quit versus those who continue to smoke
- the affordability of tobacco products driven by economic trends, industry pricing, and government excise and customs duties and other charges and taxes
- the effects of other policy measures introduced by government
- changing social factors such as increasing public awareness of the health risks of smoking and levels of public tolerance about exposure to tobacco smoke.
Each of these factors is touched on in Section 2.10.1 and discussed in more detail in Section 2.10.2.
2.10.1 Stages of tobacco consumption in Australia
Per capita consumption of tobacco appears to have gone through a number of stages in Australia as indicated by the trend-lines in Figure 2.10.2.
Sources:
Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics data on excise clearances
i. Excise reports: comparative statement of quantity of spirits, beer and tobacco on which excise duty was paid in the Commonwealth during the years 1907–1912 (calendar years),13 1911 to 1918–19,14 1919–20 to 1928–29,15 1929–30 to 1938–39,16
ii. Excise reports: Quantity of spirits, beer, tobacco etc on which duty was paid in the years 1939–40 to 1948–49,17 1949–50 to 1953–54,18 1954–55 to 1958–59,19 1958–59 to 1962–6320
iii. Overseas trade bulletins: quantity of goods on which excise duty was paid, 1963–64 to 1967–68,21 1968–69 to 1972–7322 and 1972–73 to 1976–7723
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on excise clearances
iv. Excisable tobacco products: quantity cleared and revenue collected by state 1973–74 to 1986–8724–33
v. Excise data for Australian tobacco products supplied to author by John Broweleit, ABS, for July 1977 to June 1981, 1981 to 1988 and 1988 to 1993 on 2 February 1995 and for July 1993 to June 1994 on 2 December 1994
vi. Excise data (month-by-month) for Australian tobacco products since 1994, supplied to author by International Trade Section, ABS, 14 August 1997,13 March 1998 and monthly by electronic subscriptionbetween 1998 and 200334
Australian Institute of Health and welfare
vii. Excise receipts supplied by Australian Taxation Office to AIHW for Drug use in Australia 200635 and 201012
Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics data on customs clearances
a. Annual statement of the trade of the Commonwealth of Australia, general imports–Australia, 1903,36 190437 and 190538
b. Trade and customs and excise revenue of the Commonwealth of Australia, Imports–Australia, 190639 to 191340-45 and 1914–15 to 1920–2146-52
c. Oversea Trade Bulletin: Australian statistics of oversea imports and exports and customs and excise revenue, Imports–Australia, 1920–21 and 1921–2253 through 1922–23 and 1923–24 to 1936–37 to 1937–3854–69
d. Overseas trade and customs and excise revenue, Imports–Australia, 1937–38 and 1938–39 to 1948–49 and 1949–5070-82
e. Overseas Trade Statistics: imports Cleared for Home Consumption–Australia 1950–51 to1958–5983-90
f. Imports cleared for home consumption bulletins, 1959–60 to 1972–7391-104
Australian Bureau of Statistics data on customs duty
g. Imports cleared for home consumption, 1973–74 to 1977–78105-109
h . Imports cleared for home consumption –Australia 1978–79 to 1980–81110–112
i. International Trade Branch, Import clearance data for Australian tobacco products, 1981–82 to 1987–88, and 1988–89 to 1993–94 supplied to author by John Broweleit, ABS, 2 December 1994 and 2 February 1995
j. Annual customs data from 1995 supplied on request to author by ABS Information service on 1st August 2007
Notes on excise and customs duty
Figures before 1966 were recorded in imperial weights but have been converted to kilograms in this table.
It should be noted that excise data on roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco products was for many years compiled from at least two different product codes. Pipe tobacco and chewing tobacco appear to have been coded together with RYO over some periods of time and separately in others. In many years, some pipe tobacco, chewing tobacco and even possibly RYO tobacco may have been incorrectly coded to one or more 'other' (miscellaneous) codes (letter to author from P Holt, Australian Customs Service, clarifying coding of RYO tobacco products, 11 October 1996). It is therefore not possible to be confident about historical data for individual product types.
Suggested citation for those reproducing this table
Scollo M. Chapter 2: Trends in tobacco consumption. In: Scollo M and Winstanley M, eds. Tobacco in Australia, facts and issues. Melbourne, Australia: Cancer Council Victoria, 2012. Figure 2.10.2, Tobacco products dutied for sale per person 15 years and over, Australia, 1906 to 2009–10 (grams): 1910 to 1945, 1946 to 1961, 1962 to 1982, 1983 to 2000, 2001 to 2010. Produced using data in historical publications published by the Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics, publications produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and AIHW and data provided by the ABS.
See Section 2.10
2.10.1.1 Increases in consumption in the inter-war and post-war periods
Figure 2.10.2 shows that overall per capita consumption of tobacco products in Australia dipped in the wake of shortages during Depression years and immediately following World War II, and then rose steadily until the early 1960s. The increase between the late 1940s and early 1960s can be attributed to the combined effect of:
- rising levels of affluence and disposable income during the 1950s combined with little increase in the real price of tobacco products, resulting in cigarettes becoming more affordable–see Chapter 13, Section 13.3
- progressive increases in marketing to and subsequent use of tobacco products by women
- progressive increases in marketing and subsequent use of factory-made cigarettes by men as well as by women–much more convenient to smoke than roll-your-own and other tobacco products–leading to higher consumption per smoker.
- Per capita consumption of tobacco products peaked in Australia in 1960 following the introduction of television and before the restriction of broadcasting of tobacco advertisements–see Chapter 11, Section 11.0.
- It is possible that early media coverage about the health risks of smoking in publications such as the Reader's Digest may have contributed to a number of short-term dips in consumption in the late 1950s.
2.10.1.2 Trends in consumption during the 1960s and 1970s
Figure 2.10.2 shows a marked decline in per capita consumption in the early and mid-1960s, which was the time during which landmark reports about the health effects of smoking were released in Britain (in 1962113) and in the US (in 1964114 and 1967115). Per capita consumption rallied again over the 1970s as the baby boomers 'came of age', many seeing smoking as a badge of rebellion in the so-called 'youth revolution', and a marker of the sexual liberation and economic emancipation of women.116 The early 1970s also saw more vigorous marketing of tobacco products on billboards, through sponsorships and in magazines following the phasing out of advertising on TV and radio–see Chapter 11, Section 11.0.
2.10.1.3 Trends in consumption during the 1980s and 1990s
Per capita consumption of tobacco products reduced steeply over the 1980s and 1990s following the commencement of Quit campaigns (see Chapter 14, Section 14.2) and the imposition of (and subsequent frequent increases in)117 franchise fees on sales of tobacco products in each Australian state and territory–see Chapter 13, Section 13.2. The rapid spread of smokefree policies in workplaces and hospitality venues must have contributed substantially to declines in consumption over this period–see Chapter 15.
Changes in the proportion of people in the population who regularly smoke
There is strong evidence that the introduction of118–120 and increases in funding for120 social marketing campaigns have contributed to reductions in the proportion of people who smoke in Australia. Analysis of monthly changes in smoking prevalence between 1995 and 2006 indicates that increases in the price of tobacco products have been the most significant policy factor driving reductions in smoking prevalence with increases in exposure to mass media campaigns also playing a significant role.121
Changes in the amounts smoked by regular smokers
While per capita consumption was flat during the 1970s and declined during the 1980s–and while it is known that the proportion of the population regularly smoking declined between 1976 and 1992 (see Chapter 1, Section 1.3)–there is evidence that consumption by (remaining) regular smokers increased quite markedly over this period. Edition two of Facts and Issues122 included estimates of the average annual numbers of cigarettes consumed for 1945, 1964 and three-yearly from 1983 to 1992 (years in which survey data provided estimates of the numbers of regular smokers in Australia). Using limited data available on average weights of cigarettes in each of the years, it was estimated that the number of cigarettes consumed per adult, per day, increased from about three per day in 1945 to 17 in 1964 to about 27 in 1992.
Increased consumption per smoker during the 1970s and 1980s was thought to be attributable to:
- earlier average age of uptake than in previous decades, and consequently heavier lifetime use, particularly among women
- lower nicotine levels in cigarettes corresponding with greater market demand for cigarettes labeled 'low tar' and thought to be less dangerous, compelling smokers to smoke more cigarettes to maintain blood nicotine levels similar to those they became used to before switching to lower-tar brands
- the growing trend to smaller, lighter cigarettes, which were faster to smoke
- the shift to larger and larger pack sizes, which resulted in cheaper cigarettes and additional increased consumption among those smokers who tend to calibrate the number of cigarettes they smoke to take account of the number they have left in the pack.
Self-report data show a sharp decline in the number of cigarettes smoked per day between 1989 and 1992 and a more gradual decline between 1992 and 1998. This pattern of change is consistent with the very large increase in the adoption of smokefree workplaces following the release of a judgment in a major legal case about the health effects of secondhand smoke in February 1991–see Chapter 16, Section 16.2.2 and the subsequent increases in adoption of smokefree homes–see Chapter 15, Sections 15.4 and 15.6. Adoption of smokefree policies has been firmly associated with declines in tobacco consumption by individual smokers in numerous studies both in Australia123 and internationally124 and has been associated with profound declines in most social groups of the acceptability of smoking around others.
2.10.1.4 Trends in consumption during the 2000s
The large decline in consumption between 1998 and 2001 resulted from the reduction in both the proportion of people smoking and the amount smoked per smoker following the National Tobacco Campaign and reform of taxes on tobacco products resulting in large increase in the price of budget brands–see Chapter 13, Section 13.5.
Figure 2.10.2 indicates a continuing though somewhat flatter rate of decline in per capita consumption over the 2000s corresponding with the continued decline in the prevalence of smoking since 2001 (see Chapter 1, Section 1.3); the fall between 2001 and 2004 in reported consumption by remaining smokers (see Section 2.3.1) is likely to be in response to extension of smokefree policies throughout the hospitality industry (see Chapter 15, Section 15.4, 15.5 and 15.7).
2.10.2 Factors affecting trends in tobacco consumption over the last century
As is evident in the discussion above, factors that drive changes over time in the proportion of people smoking regularly and the amount smoked by regular smokers include:
- demographic trends
- characteristics of smokers
- marketing practices of tobacco companies
- the affordability of tobacco products
- policies and programs adopted and funded by governments
- social and cultural factors.
2.10.2.1 Policy effects on tobacco consumption
Apart from increasing taxes and social marketing campaigns, which have been demonstrated to reduce the prevalence of smoking,120 and smokefree policies demonstrated to reduce consumption by remaining smokers,124 it seems highly likely that many other tobacco-control initiatives have also contributed to declining tobacco consumption, albeit in ways that are difficult to detect125,126 in standard economic analysis.121 Consumer information on tobacco products (health warnings) can be undermined by increased attention to colour and branding as part of pack design. However there is evidence that strengthened warnings are more prominent to teenagers127 and that pictorial warnings have increased knowledge about the health effects of smoking and reduced positive feelings about tobacco products.128 Laws that have substantially reduced sales to minors also appeared to have contributed to declines in teenage smoking both in Australia129,130 and other countries131,132 The effects on per capitaconsumption of measures such as tightening of access laws and strengthening of health warnings that mainly affect young people would not be detectable in total consumption patterns immediately following implementation but are likely to exert an effect, the strength of which would increase gradually over time, as people born after 1980 make up an increasingly larger proportion of the Australian population.
Studies on the impacts of policies on the prevalence of smoking in Australia have so far not been able to detect an effect at the population level of deregulation of nicotine replacement therapies and the subsidy of other treatments for tobacco dependence in Australia.120 Such therapies have all been established to increase success rates of quitters in clinical trials.133–135 The subsidy of such medicines has most certainly increased their use in Australia since 2001–see Chapter 7, Section 7.16–and could well have increased the frequency with which doctors have advised patients to quit. Controlling for the tendency of more heavily dependent smokers to use such medications, there is some evidence that NRT has increased quit rates in real world as well as in clinical settings.136,137 While the effects of increasing success rates among quitters is quite small and would be difficult to detect in population surveys138 it is plausible that policies that have contributed to greater use of anti-smoking medicines in Australia are also exerting a downward effect on population prevalence and consumption by decreasing the numbers of smokers who relapse following quit attempts.
Researchers have not found a way to quantify precisely the contribution of each of the policy factors highlighted in Figure 2.10.3, however it is probable that these would have all contributed in some way–either directly or indirectly, in the longer if not the short term–by having:
- reduced the glamour and appeal of tobacco products
- increased knowledge about health effects
- reduced cues or opportunities to smoke
- reduced the social acceptability of smoking
- reduced withdrawal symptoms during quitting, or
- increased smokers' knowledge about how to manage the quitting process.
In combination, all these factors would likely have made some contribution to reducing motivation to smoke and creating an environment that supports non-smoking.
Sources:
Prices:
NSW Retail Tobacco Traders Association. Cigarette price lists. The Australian Retail Tobacconist139
Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics data on excise clearances
i. Excise reports: comparative statement of quantity of spirits, beer and tobacco on which excise duty was paid in the Commonwealth during the years 1907–1912 (calendar years),13 1911 to 1918–19,14 1919–20 to 1928–29,15 1929–30 to 1938–39,16 1939–40 to 1948–49,17 1949–50 to 1953–54,18 1954–55 to 1958–59,19 1958–59 to 1962–6320
ii. Overseas trade bulletins: quantity of goods on which excise duty was paid, 1963–64 to 1967–68,21 1967–68 to 1972–73 and 1972–73 to 1976–7723
Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics data on excise clearances
i. Excise reports: comparative statement of quantity of spirits, beer and tobacco on which excise duty was paid in the Commonwealth during the years 1907–1912 (calendar years),13 1911 to 1918–19,14 1919–20 to 1928–29,15 1929–30 to 1938–39,16
ii. Excise reports: Quantity of spirits, beer, tobacco etc on which duty was paid in the years 1939–40 to 1948–49,17 1949–50 to 1953–54,18 1954–55 to 1958–59,19 1958–59 to 1962–6320
iii. Overseas trade bulletins: quantity of goods on which excise duty was paid, 1963–64 to 1967–68,21 1968–69 to 1972–7322 and 1972–73 to 1976–7723
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on excise clearances
iv. Excisable tobacco products: quantity cleared and revenue collected by state 1973–74 to 1986–8724–33
v. Excise data for Australian tobacco products supplied to author by John Broweleit, ABS, for July 1977 to June 1981, 1981 to 1988 and 1988 to 1993 on 2 February 1995 and for July 1993 to June 1994 on 2 December 1994
vi. Excise data (month-by-month) for Australian tobacco products since 1994, supplied to author by International Trade Section, ABS, 14 August 1997,13 March 1998 and monthly by electronic subscriptionbetween 1998 and 200334
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare
vii. Excise receipts supplied by Australian Taxation Office to AIHW for Drug use in Australia 200635 and 201012
Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics data on customs clearances
a. Annual statement of the trade of the Commonwealth of Australia, general imports–Australia, 1903,36 190437 and 190538
b. Trade and customs and excise revenue of the Commonwealth of Australia, Imports–Australia, 190639 to 191340-45 and 1914–15 to 1920–2146-52
c. Oversea Trade Bulletin: Australian statistics of oversea imports and exports and customs and excise revenue, Imports–Australia, 1920–21 and 1921–2253 through1922–23 and 1923–24 to 1936–37 to 1937–3854–69
d. Overseas trade and customs and excise revenue, Imports–Australia, 1937–38 and 1938–39 to 1948–49 and 1949–5070-82
e. Overseas Trade Statistics: imports Cleared for Home Consumption–Australia 1950–51 to1958–5983-90
f. Imports cleared for home consumption bulletins, 1959–60 to 1972–7391-104
Australian Bureau of Statistics data on customs duty
g. Imports cleared for home consumption, 1973–74 to 1977–78105-109
h . Imports cleared for home consumption –Australia 1978–79 to 1980–81110–112
i. International Trade Branch, Import clearance data for Australian tobacco products, 1981–82 to 1987–88, and 1988–89 to 1993–94 supplied to author by John Broweleit, ABS, 2 December 1994 and 2 February 1995
j. Annual customs data from 1995 supplied on request to author by ABS Information service on 1st August 2007
Notes on excise and customs duty
Figures before 1966 were recorded in imperial weights but have been converted to kilograms in this table.
It should be noted that excise data on roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco products was for many years compiled from at least two different product codes. Pipe tobacco and chewing tobacco appear to have been coded together with RYO over some periods of time and separately in others. In many years, some pipe tobacco, chewing tobacco and even possibly RYO tobacco may have been incorrectly coded to one or more 'other' (miscellaneous) codes (letter to author from P Holt, Australian Customs Service, clarifying coding of RYO tobacco products, 11 October 1996). It is therefore not possible to be confident about historical data for individual product types.
Suggested citation for those reproducing this table
Scollo M. Chapter 2: Trends in tobacco consumption. In: Scollo M and Winstanley M, eds. Tobacco in Australia, facts and issues. Melbourne, Australia: Cancer Council Victoria, 2012. Figure 2.10.3, Tobacco products levied for duty for sale in Australia (total excise and customs): cigarettes, cigars and other tobacco products, 1910 to 1998–99 (millions of kilograms). Produced using data in historical publications published by the Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics, publications produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Australian Institute of Health and Welfare and data provided by the ABS. See Section 2.10
2.10.2.2 Effects of cultural and social forces on tobacco consumption
Government policies are not the only factors that influence smoking attitudes and behaviours.140
Seeing other people smoking, whether in real life, on TV, in magazines or in movies, can prompt smokers to light up141, 142 and is likely to make smoking seem more normal and acceptable to children. Portrayal of glamorous women and women enjoying new-found independence smoking factory-made cigarettes in Hollywood movies must have been a particularly powerful influence on the uptake of smoking among young women in the inter-war period–see Chapter 5, Section 5.16 for further discussion.
Pierce has demonstrated a measurable effect of print media coverage about the health risks of smoking on cessation rates in the US.143 Media coverage about health risks appeared on several occasions during the 1950s and 1960s to exert a detectable effect on per capita consumption in Australia. These effects no doubt continued during the following four decades, with continuing high levels of media interest in the smoking issue in this country.144, 145
Humans are highly social animals, and peer example also exerts powerful effects. Children are much more likely to take up smoking if their parents or peers are smokers,146,147 and adults are much more likely to quit over time if family and friends have quit.148 Thus, changes in behavior by small numbers of individuals can quickly result in changes across much larger groups in the manner of a contagious disease quickly becoming an epidemic.148
Apart from social modeling of smoking and awareness of the health effects, decisions about uptake and quitting and about where and when to smoke are also profoundly influenced by the social acceptability of smoking. Alamar and Glantz computed a social unacceptability index based on individuals' responses to questions regarding locations where smoking should be allowed. A regression analysis showed that the social unacceptability index and price had similar elasticities and that their effects were independent of each other. The researchers estimated that if, through an active tobacco-control campaign, the average individual's views on the social unacceptability of smoking changed to more closely resemble the views of California residents, there would have been a 15% drop in cigarette consumption, equivalent to a US$1.17 increase in the excise tax on cigarettes.149
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