Another way of estimating tobacco consumption is to quantify spending by consumers on tobacco products among the total population or among households with any expenditure on tobacco. This section examines changes in household consumption of tobacco products in dollar terms, estimated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, over time, accounting for changes in the price of cigarettes and the size of the Australian population. Additional information on household expenditure from periodic surveys is also presented.
2.4.1 Private final consumption
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reports on estimated amounts spent by consumers on various products and services as part of a major quarterly report quantifying Australia's gross national product.1 Its private final household consumption data for each category of expenditure for each quarter back to 1960 is available electronically.2 Until 2014 ABS estimates of final private consumption of tobacco products were based not on sales data but rather just on excise and manufacturing figures adjusted for imports, exports and changes in inventory.3 The data take into account the estimated impact of increases in duty on the retail price of cigarettes, using the tobacco component of the Consumer Price Index, and are adjusted for seasonal trends. Since 2014, estimates of tobacco prices take into account not just survey data but also prices from transactions (sales) figures provided by a number of large retailers from grocery scanner machines.4 Volume estimates used in construction of national accounts in recent years also take into account scanner data from large grocery retailers.5
Table 2.4.1 and Figure 2.4.1 show ABS estimates of total amounts Australians spent on cigarettes and other tobacco products between 1960 and 2024. Total private final household consumption of cigarettes and tobacco is shown in current dollars, and then in chain volumes (seasonally adjusted) to account for production volumes and previous year prices (For more information, see: Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product methodology, December 2024 | Australian Bureau of Statistics). Finally, to provide an estimate of trends in the quantity smoked per person (rather than just the increasing total expenditure resulting from increasing prices of cigarettes and the growing population), the final column adjusts these chain volume figures by total population size, providing a per capita estimate of cigarette and tobacco consumption adjusting for price, volume, and population size over time.
As can be seen from Table 2.4.1, total estimated household spending on tobacco products in current dollars over the more-than-60 years until its peak in December 2021 increased more than 55-fold, and was 43 times higher in 2024 than in 1960. However it must be remembered that the price of tobacco products has increased significantly over that period, well beyond increases in the Consumer Price Index. Taking into account price increases in tobacco products (that is, using chain volumes), Australians in 2024 were spending 67% less on tobacco than they were in 1960, and 83% less than at the peak of tobacco consumption in 1975. It also must be remembered that the Australian population increased substantially over that period, from about 10 million in 1960 to more than 27 million in 2024. Adjusting for population size, private final household consumption figures show that Australians were consuming 92% less tobacco products per capita in 2024 than they were consuming at the height of (per capita) consumption in 1970. Per capita consumption, based on seasonally adjusted price-adjusted private final consumption, more than halved from 2012 to 2022, and showed yearly declines of 9-14% from 2019 to 2023, and a 19% decline from 2023 to 2024.
Based as they are on customs/excise receipts, estimates of final private consumption of tobacco products would not be taking into account spending on illegally supplied tobacco products on which customs or excise duty have not been paid.
2.4.2 Household expenditure
2.4.2.1 The ABS Household Expenditure Survey
An alternative estimate of trends in tobacco consumption is provided by average household spending on tobacco products as reported in the ABS's (approximately) six-yearly surveys of household expenditure.6 The survey was last conducted in 2015–16.
The ABS estimates of household expenditure are compiled from diaries of spending by all members of the household but are calculated for the household as a whole, regardless of numbers and employment status of people in the household. The data included in Table 2.4.2 are averages across all household types. Figure 2.4.2 shows weekly household expenditure on tobacco products adjusted to take into account increases in tobacco prices over the same period.7,8
Average household expenditure on tobacco products more than doubled in the 30 years from 1984. However when the substantial increases in tobacco prices over that period are taken into account, it would seem that households in 2015–16 purchased on average just over one-eighth of the quantity of tobacco products they were purchasing in 1984.
2.4.2.2 Tobacco expenditure from longitudinal household surveys
The Household, Labour, Income, and Labour Dynamics (HILDA) survey is a longitudinal household survey that collects data on, among many other factors, household expenditure and tobacco use. Expenditure on tobacco products was added to the survey in 2006. At a broad level, the HILDA survey found average expenditure on tobacco products across all households (i.e. not just those that included people who smoke) declined by just 2.6% in real terms from 2006 to 2022, but showed a much larger decline from 2021 to 2022 (-15.8%)9—see Figure 2.4.3 below.
A more detailed analysis of tobacco expenditure using the 2006 to 2022 HILDA survey data found that, among households that had any tobacco expenditure in a given year, inflation adjusted tobacco expenditure increased by 28.4% between 2006 and 2022, from $3840 to $4932 (expressed in $2022), after a peak of $5615 in 2020.10 Data from this study also showed that the proportion of surveyed households that had any expenditure on tobacco declined from 26.4% in 2006 to 20.2% in 2022—a decline of 23.4%, as shown in Figure 2.4.4 below. Changes in household expenditure on tobacco products should be examined in the context of fewer households making any tobacco purchases over time.
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References
1. Australian Bureau of Statistics. 5204.0 Australian System of National Accounts 2010-11. Canberra: ABS, 2011. Available from: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyCatalogue/110953FFA28D4E52CA2572110002FF03?OpenDocument.
2. Australian Bureau of Statistics. 5206.0 Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product; Table 8. Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE). Canberra, Australia 2020. Last update: 28/05/2020; Viewed 29/06/2020. Available from: https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/5206.0Main+Features1Mar%202020?OpenDocument
3. Australian Bureau of Statistics. 5216.0 Australian National Accounts: concepts, sources and methods, 2015. Canberra: ABS, 2015. Available from: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyCatalogue/8AC0D9921051E17BCA2570B300807D36?OpenDocument.
4. Australian Bureau of Statistics. 6401.0 - Feature article: the use of transactions data to compile the Consumer Price Index. Canberra: ABS, 2013. Available from: https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/6401.0Main%20Features2Sep%202013?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=6401.0&issue=Sep%202013&num=&view=.
5. Australian Bureau of Statistics. Recent applications of supermarket scanner data in the National Accounts. Canberra, Australia 2021. Last update: 16/06/2021; Viewed 30/06/2021. Available from: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/research/recent-applications-supermarket-scanner-data-national-accounts.
6. Australian Bureau of Statistics. 6503.0 - Household Expenditure Survey and Survey of Income and Housing, User Guide, Australia, 2015-16 Canberra, Australia 2017. Last update: Viewed 30/04/2019. Available from: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6503.0Main+Features100002015-16?OpenDocument.
7. Australian Bureau of Statistics. 6530.0 - Household Expenditure Survey, Australia: Summary of Results, 2015-16: 1 Household Expenditure, 1984 to 2015-16 Canberra, Australia 2017. Last update: Viewed 30/04/2019. Available from: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6530.02015-16?OpenDocument.
8. Australian Bureau of Statistics. 6401.0 Consumer Price Index, Australia, Table 7, CPI: Group, Sub-group and Expenditure Class, Weighted Average of Eight Capital Cities. Canberra: ABS, 2017. Last update: Viewed 19 September 2017. Available from: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/938DA570A34A8EDACA2568A900139350?opendocument.
9. Wilkins R, Botha F, Laß I, and Peyton K. The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey: Selected Findings from Waves 1 to 22. Melbourne, Australia: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, 2024. Available from: https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/5229912/2024-HILDA-Statistical-Report.pdf.
10. Newell J, Kang H, and Gartner CE. Household tobacco expenditure and associated characteristics during substantial regular tobacco tax increases: analysis from a nationally representative longitudinal study in Australia from 2006 to 2022. Tobacco Control, 2025. Available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/40204342